Grand tour finish percentages

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The odds for finishing a grand tour between 1998 and 2012 was 74.2%. In the previous post a conclusion was that the average age for grand tour finishers was equal to grand tour starters.

Grand tour finish percentage by age

Below are the numbers for each age. The youngsters are abandoning above average, but those abandons are often planned. From age 22 there is very little difference. Age is calculated at the start of the grand tour.

Age Starts Finishes Abandons %
19 1 0 1 0
20 10 4 6 40
21 77 47 30 61
22 196 148 48 75.5
23 432 330 102 76.4
24 645 472 173 73.2
25 799 580 219 72.6
26 864 652 212 75.5
27 898 656 242 73.1
28 839 630 209 75.1
29 784 576 208 73.5
30 710 513 197 72.3
31 613 454 159 74.1
32 494 386 108 78.1
33 353 257 96 72.8
34 290 222 68 76.6
35 210 158 52 75.2
36 141 107 34 75.9
37 89 66 23 74.2
38 44 36 8 81.8
39 11 8 3 72.7
40 7 7 0 100
41 1 1 0 100
42 1 0 1 0
Tot. 8509 6310 2199 74.2

In graphs it looks like this:

As percentages (last bar is average percentage)

The 42 year old is Andrea Noè in the 2011 Giro d’Italia.

A list of the youngsters, not the biggest names in cycling right now. Starting a grand tour at age 20 is not a guarantee for succes

age
Giro d’Italia 2000 SPINELLI Justin 20 DNS at stage 12, possibly planned
Giro d’Italia 2005 DEKKER Thomas 20 Finished
Giro d’Italia 2006 DELAGE Mickael 20 Finished
Vuelta a España 2006 WALKER William 20 Finished
Giro d’Italia 2007 ROVNY Ivan 19 DNS at stage 14, possibly planned
Vuelta a España 2008 ROVNY Ivan 20 DNF at stage 16
Giro d’Italia 2010 BLYTHE Adam 20 DNF at stage 11
Giro d’Italia 2010 BOBRIDGE Jack 20 DNF at stage 13
Giro d’Italia 2010 BRANDLE Matthias 20 Finished
Tour de France 2010 FELLINE Fabio 20 DNS at stage 9, planned
Giro d’Italia 2012 DEMARE Arnaud 20 DNF at stage 14

Most finishes since 1998

The grand tours with most finishes. Interesting that they are recent.

start finish %
2012 Vuelta a España 198 175 88.4
2009 Tour de France 180 156 86.7
2010 Tour de France 197 170 86.3
2009 Giro d’Italia 198 169 85.4
2011 Tour de France 198 167 84.3
2011 Vuelta a España 198 167 84.3

Least finishes since 1998

Many retirements from the 1998 Tour de France were connected to the  TVM doping scandal. Again interesting to see that these are from the early years

start finish %
1998 Tour de France 189 96 50.8
1998 Vuelta a España 198 108 54.5
2003 Giro d’Italia 169 97 57.4
1998 Giro d’Italia 162 94 58
1999 Vuelta a España 189 115 60.8

Grand tour finish percentage by event

The finish percentage for the Tour de France is a bit higher for the Tour de France (77.3 %) than Giro d’Italia (73.3 %) and Vuelta a Espana (71.9%)

Grand tour finish percentage over the years

The odds for finishing a grand tour have gone up from 70% to 80% over the last 15 years

year starts finishes %
1998 549 298 54.3
1999 529 372 70.3
2000 541 378 69.9
2001 558 419 75.1
2002 593 425 71.7
2003 564 403 71.5
2004 544 406 74.6
2005 583 435 74.6
2006 563 423 75.1
2007 574 427 74.4
2008 545 417 76.5
2009 576 464 80.6
2010 593 465 78.4
2011 603 493 81.8
2012 594 485 81.6

Grand Tour Finish Percentage from 1998 to 2012

 

 


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